Outlook for Global Wind Energy Industry*
Much of the increase in renewable energy in the industrialised world is projected to be produced by renewable energy sources other than hydro power in particular by wind.
The Global Wind Energy Council forecasts that the wind energy sector will grow at an average rate of 19.4% pa between 2010 and 2015. It forecasts that a total of 459 000 MW of wind energy capacity will be installed by the end of 2015, an increase of 133% from the 197,000 MW of installed capacity at the end of 2010.
Asia is expected to be the fastest growing region in the world, driven mainly by China, which is expected to continue the rapid up-scaling of its wind energy capacity. Wind energy development in North America, particularly the US, is also expected to grow strongly, supported by a package of measures agreed by the US Congress and the prospect of a national emissions trading scheme.
Europe will continue to have the largest installed capacity, as a region, up until 2013, driven by large scale offshore developments and growth from the less mature European nations.
The main impetus for this expected growth is the need to meet increasing legislated emissions reductions targets established by countries around the world. In addition, the repowering of older turbines and the development of offshore wind farms is expected to expand the wind energy sector. Consolidation within the industry may also be seen as ownership shifts away from individuals and smaller developers.
Renewable energy targets for key markets
China has become the world's largest producer of wind energy, and was the world's largest market in 2010, having installed 18,928 MW to take its total capacity to 44,733 MW. In March 2011, the Chinese Parliament passed its twelth Five-Year Plan, which set a target to build a total of 90 GW of wind energy by 2015.
The US wind industry installed 5,115 MW of wind power in 2010, taking its total capacity to 40,180 MW. The cost of wind power installation in the US has dropped over the past two years, with Power Purchase Agreements being signed in the range of USD 5 to 6 cents per kWh recently, making wind competitive with new natural gas fired power plants.
The US government has been an active participant in the growth of the wind energy sector. The key support mechanism for renewable energy has been the Production Tax Credit (PTC) program, whereby companies that generate electricity from renewable energy, are eligible for the PTCs which provide a USD 2.1 cent per kWh benefit for the first ten years of a renewable energy facility's operation.
In February 2009, the US Congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), an economic stimulus bill which included several provisions to spur development of wind energy in the slow economic climate. Measures included a three-year extension of the PTC program through 2012, and the option to elect a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) in place of the PTC program. In December 2010, the ITC was extended to the end of 2011.
In addition, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) programs apply for some 30 states, and are based on a fixed quantity system whereby a renewable energy generator such as a wind farm is issued with "renewable energy certificates" which can be onsold to energy retailers who are required to surrender them to a state based regulator. For more information visit: www.epa.gov.
Europe, as a region, installed 9,295 MW of wind power during 2010, of which 9,883 MW of wind power was installed in the European Union (EU). At the end of 2010, the EU's new Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) entered into force, setting an EU renewable energy target of at least 20% of final energy consumption by 2020. Each EU Member State has a national legally binding target for the share of renewable energy it must achieve by that date. Electricity from renewables will play the largest role in meeting this target, covering a third of total electricity consumption. With a acapacity of 213 GW (of this 43 GW offshore), wind comes out as the technology of choice in the National Renewable Energy Action Plans.
* - Statistics published by the Global Wind Energy Council, for more information visit: www.gwec.net.